Spot prices for North Sea oil went over USD 74 a barrel on Tuesday. Some analysts think they'll keep rising, as the summer driving season gets underway in both North America and Europe.
Others think they'll fall back, but not banking firm Nordea's chief economist Steinar Juel. Both Juel and industrialist Jens Ulltveit-Moe, now a private investor, contend that prices will rise until alternative energy sources become economically advantageous.
Juel told newspaper Dagens Næringsliv Wednesday that he wouldn't rule out oil prices of more than USD 100 a barrel, a level considered unthinkable just three years ago.
"When we look back, we see that USD 40 a barrel was a prelude to today's USD 70 range," Juel said. "Then USD 70 a barrel can absolutely be a prelude to USD 100 a barrel."
World economic growth, Juel noted, points toward an ongoing need for high oil and energy demand. And the world seems to be living with high oil prices, which so far haven't blocked the growth.
Moreover, he notes, there's little sign of any new large sources of oil coming on line. "I have difficulty seeing where a lot of new oil will come from," Juel told Dagens Næringsliv.
Investor Ulltveit-Moe, a former head of Norway's largest employers' association, agrees, and notes that oil prices will likely approach levels that will make alternative energy more viable. Coal, he notes, is the biggest rival to oil, and the costs of extracting it and cutting its emissions will guide oil prices.
