He directly refutes far more optimistic predictions released just last week by Norway's real estate brokers' association (Norges Eiendomsmeglerforbund) and by housing association OBOS. The brokers claim prices will rise an average 4 percent nationwide, while OBOS expects a 5 percent jump in the Oslo area.
"I don't have any faith in that, and I don't think they really think that themselves," Hansen told Aftenposten. "Prices are already sliding and there's very little to suggest the trend will reverse any time soon."
The only housing units that Hansen thinks will see any price appreciation at all are small, relatively inexpensive flats in the NOK 14,000-20,000 per-square-meter range, for example in Oslo's Groruddalen. "But even then, we're only talking about a marginal rise," he said.
OPAK bases its prediction on a study it's done every year for the past 20 years. The firm registers appraisals attached to all flats advertised for sale in Aftenposten over a two-week period. This year's study was done in May and November.
Results showed a clear price slide during the period for both flats and single-family detached homes. Row houses were hit the hardest, with appraisals falling a full 9.3 percent. Hansen claims OBOS prices also fell during the six-month period, down 6.3 percent.
OBOS itself claims prices rose 8 percent during 2002, but it's comparing average prices for the whole year, compared to all of 2001.
Hansen claims it's a "buyers' market" now. His advice to those keen on finding a new home: Sell first, and then find a new home to buy. Otherwise, he warns, "you may find yourself sitting with two homes."