09.11.2009: SECURING ADDITIONAL ALLIED/PARTNER CONTRIBUTIONS TO ISAF IN SUPPORT OF PRESIDENT OBAMA"S UPCOMING ANNOUNCEMENT ON AFGHANISTAN

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 04 USNATO 000507

NOFORN SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/09/2019 TAGS: PREL, MOPS, NATO, MCAP, MARR, AF

SUBJECT: SECURING ADDITIONAL ALLIED/PARTNER CONTRIBUTIONS TO ISAF IN SUPPORT OF PRESIDENT OBAMA"S UPCOMING ANNOUNCEMENT ON AFGHANISTAN

REF: USNATO 505

Classified By: Ambassador I. Daalder. Reasons: 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (C) Summary: When President Obama announces his decision on possible U.S. troop increases for Afghanistan, the impact could be far greater if other Allied and Partner leaders would announce increases of their own either simultaneously or in close succession. Several Allies and Partners have the military capacity to make significant additional contributions, and if they showed the political will to follow through that would send a strong signal of resolve and unity of purpose to the international audience, Al Qaeda and the Taliban. We should use the time between now and the President´s announcement to engage select Allies and Partners at the highest levels to secure commitments to those additional military, civilian and monetary contributions. Below is a summary of nations that we believe can do more now. Of these countries, we believe Germany, Italy, and the UK are the most likely to respond positively.

End summary.

--------------------------------------------- -------------- THE TIME IS NOW FOR ADDITIONAL ALLIED/PARTNER CONTRIBUTIONS --------------------------------------------- --------------

2. (S) At the 5 November expanded North Atlantic Council meeting, the 43 ISAF troop contributing nations consulted with a senior level USG interagency team on the proposed U.S. strategy in Afghanistan in advance of the POTUS decision (reftel). NATO SecGen Anders Fogh Rasmussen set the stage very well for further USG outreach to selected Allies and Partners with a strong plea to make additional contributions to ISAF if the President decides to deploy additional troops. Our analysis agrees with recent U.S. intelligence community reporting, which indicates there are several Allies who can make significant (battalion sized) additional force contributions. In addition, there are several other Allies and Partners who could provide other important contributions.

-------------------------------------- SIX WHO CAN DO SIGNIFICANTLY MORE NOW -------------------------------------

3. (S/NF) FRANCE * With its July 2009 announcement that it would reduce its current contribution to the Kosovo Force (KFOR) by half (from 1300 to 600), France has the potential to provide at least an additional battalion of combat forces (perhaps as much as 1,000) to ISAF. Although the French military is willing and able to contribute more, strong public opposition to the war makes it politically difficult at this point according to French MFA officials. While they have been vocal at NATO saying they will not provide more troops, high-level engagement with the French may convince them to take the world stage with President Obama. If unable to convince then to provide more combat forces, they should, at a minimum, stop blocking the British AWACS deployment and contribute significant additional civilian, police and monetary assets.

4. (S/NF) GERMANY ) Left to its own devices, Germany will likely roll over its Afghanistan mandate in December with no changes, although Chancellor Merkel may consider requesting a troop increase in 2010 (there is strong support from the Ministries of Foreign Affairs and Defense for increasing Germany´s ISAF troop numbers from the mandated 4,500 to upwards of 7,000) if it were linked to clear, internationally agreed benchmarks. High-level engagement may convince Chancellor Merkel to push for that increase now, but timing is short for engagement - the decision will likely be taken later this week, with an announcement to the Cabinet on 17 November and submission to the Bundestag in early December. In addition, Berlin may be planning to deploy 100 military police to train Afghan volunteers in the Kunduz region, with the hope of increasing the Afghan Police by some 2,000 officers. New Minister of Finance Schaeuble is a strong proponent of increasing Germany´s civilian contributions to police training, suggesting this segment of the plan could quickly gain support in Merkel´s new government as the emphasis moves from combat operations to civilian development.

5. (S/NF) ITALY * Italy has offered to increase its total permanent contribution to ISAF from 3,100 to 3,500 if requested by NATO. Failing near-term engagement, Rome intends to remove its 400 Election Support Force troops by the end of the year ) some units are beginning to return home this week. Italian FM Frattini stated that if NATO decides more resources are required by the end of the year, Italy will give serious consideration to the request and the 400 extra Election Security Forces (ESF) currently in Afghanistan could possibly remain. Given the upcoming drawdown of its forces in Kosovo (KFOR) and transfer of command of UNIFIL next year, Italy could conceivably contribute up to 1,000 additional troops.

6. (S/NF) TURKEY * Turkey will raise its total ISAF contingent to 1,700 when it takes command of Regional Command (RC) Capital this month. In addition, Ankara expects to dispatch training teams and a new civilian Provincial Reconstruction Team to RC North this year. However, Ankara continues to prohibit its troops from engaging in combat operations; because of this caveat, their military contribution may not have as significant an impact on the ground. There is a possibility that engagement with the Turks could win agreement to an overall increase of an additional battalion (600 troops), with a reduction in operational caveats.

7. (S/NF) UNITED KINGDOM ) While equipment shortages continue to hamper the British military, drawdowns in Iraq may allow as many as 2,000 additional troops for Afghanistan in the coming year, as the British military leadership has urged during the past five months. The UK strongly supports a troop increase in the South. During November 5 consultations at NATO with Washington officials, the UK delegate expressed strong support for increased troops, trainers, and "partnering," as well as increased geographical flexibility for troops. He reiterated Prime Minister Brown´s recent announcement that the UK was prepared to add 500 more troops in the South now if burden-sharing amongst troop contributing nations was more equitable. We should ask for much more than this, given the potential of a sizable U.S. increase.

8. (S/NF) ROMANIA ) Romania plans to increase its ISAF contingent to more than 1,000 in 2010. In addition, at least 600 more troops will remain on standby in Romania as a supplemental reserve. Economic constraints will limit Bucharest´s ability to make larger pledges, probably leading the government to seek assistance from the U.S. and other Allies in procuring force protection equipment. With the right engagement and support, we could gain deployment of this standby commitment.

------------------------- OTHERS WHO COULD HELP TOO -------------------------

9. (S/NF) CANADA ) Canada´s 2,926 troops operating in Kandahar Province are scheduled to leave at the end of 2011. Canadian officials continue to maintain that Canada will not extend its mandate beyond 2011. Ottawa provides five OMLTs, one PRT, and a maneuver battle group. Canada also has UAVs and heavy lift helicopters deployed. Canadian public opinion continues to question the ISAF mission, particularly in light of the rise in Canadian casualties and the public perception that Ottawa is bearing the brunt of the effort in the south. A significant U.S. deployment, combined with a number of other significant Allied announcements could change that calculus. Now may be the best time to press Ottawa to maintain its mission, or as a minimum, elements of it, such as its PRT and OMLTs beyond that time. The Canadian Permanent Representative (PermRep) to NATO (please protect) told the U.S. PermRep that the key to Canada staying is the Liberal Party. High level engagement with the new leader, Michael Ignatieff, could conceivably help.

10. (S/NF) NETHERLANDS - A large majority of the Dutch Parliament recently sent a clear message to the Cabinet they are opposed to a follow-on mission in Uruzgan. It will be difficult, but not impossibe, for the Cabinet to decide in favor of a PRT follow-on mission in the South. A second resolution also passed calling for the Cabinet to decide about a post-2010 mission in Afghanistan by March 1, 2010. The Cabinet will likely attempt to finalize its decision no later than January 12, 2010 (when a controversial report on Iraq will be published). A decision on additional U.S. and Allied contributions could influence the Cabinet to contribute more military personnel and resources. An ISAF announcement soon on the future lead of Task Force Uruzgan would also be very positive for a political argument in favor of a Dutch PRT remaining in RC-South. Privately, the Dutch MoD and MFA are the most vocally supportive of continuing the mission in Uruzgan, and an early selection of a post-2010 lead of Task Force Uruzgan could allow the Dutch debate to focus on coordinating their civilian Uruzgan PRT with a trusted security partner (Australia).

11. (S/NF) JAPAN ) Japan should be encouraged to provide robust non-lethal aid, such as continuing financial support of the Afghan National Police, humanitarian assistance, medical and other civil expertise, and in-theater transport aircraft and aircrew. Despite Japan´s coalition government´s aversion to "military-type" assistance, Japan might be persuaded to make a significant contribution to the sustainment of the Afghan National Security Forces through donations to trust funds if the President were to ask during his upcoming trip to the region. Japan can also provide civilian experts to assist the Lithuanian PRT with capacity building in Ghor province and elsewhere, including prosecutors, doctors, engineers and other subject matter experts. Additionally, agriculture development assistance is urgently needed in Afghanistan since many farmers have moved away from poppy production and it´s now critical to provide support for licit agricultural production as a disincentive to return to poppy production. Technical support for livestock management, an inoculation program, and veterinary services are urgently needed as well.

12. (S/NF) SOUTH KOREA ) We strongly support South Korea´s intent to establish a PRT in Parwan Province. USG should help facilitate this South Korea deployment as soon as possible and ensure they are engaged and communicating with NATO, ISAF, and the Afghan government.

13. (S/NF) Other Allies and partners, who have the physical and financial capability to do more now, possibly as much as a third more (albeit with a smaller total contribution than those listed above), include Bulgaria (troops), Czech Republic (troops), Greece (troops), Lithuania (troops), Luxembourg (civil experts and/or money), Portugal (troops and/or money), Slovakia (troops), Slovenia (money), European Union (police and/or rule of law trainers), Austria (troops and/or money), Brazil (money), Egypt (civil assistance), India (civil assistance), Ireland (troops and/or money).

14. (S/NF) The President´s upcoming announcement is an opportunity to extract the maximum momentum for our mission in ISAF, and we should begin coordinated high-level engagement to ensure there are a number of nations ready toannounce their increases at the same time. The NATO SecGen stands ready to help, lending his voice to call on Allies to match any U.S. contribution to the effort with increased commitment of theirs and he plans to write a letter to this effect to all ISAF Heads of State and Government. The timing of these efforts will also fit perfectly the upcoming November 23-24 Force Generation Conference

DAALDER